This webpage displays the results of a simulator I built for Pokemon TCG tournaments. Specifically, it estimates the probability that a tournament will require a record of X-1-2 or better to qualify for top cut. You qualify for top cut by scoring at least as many points as the player in 8th place after Swiss rounds, where wins are worth 3 points, losses 0, and ties 1. X is always the total number of Swiss rounds played minus 3.
For example, the 1370-player Prague Regional 2026, with 13 Swiss rounds, had only 7 players with a record of 10-1-2 (32 points) or better; thus, scoring 31 points (via a record of 10-2-1 or 9-0-4) was enough to make top cut. The 1974-player Indianapolis Regional 2026, also with 13 Swiss rounds, had 11 players with a record of 10-1-2 or better; thus, scoring 31 points was not enough to qualify for top cut.
This simulator uses actual Pokemon TCG data from regionals in the 2025-2026 season, such as tie rate and drop rate, to predict the probability that an event will have an X-1-2 cut, based off 3 variables: entrant count, global tie rate, and the tie rate among players with 5-2-0 records (4-2-0 if there are 65-128 total entrants) before the final round of day 1. [The last variable is relevant because an intentional draw with 2 losses will eliminate you from making top cut if the event has an X-1-2 cut, even though it will guarantee you qualify for day 2.] The simulator's defaults for the latter two variables are the 2026 global averages.
The simulator also assumes that players who can guarantee that they can achieve an X-1-2 record will intentionally draw (or, in very rare cases, intentionally lose) to maximize the number of people with an X-1-2 or better record. This is in these players' best interests, because they are more likely to receive a bye in the asymmetrical round of top cut if it is an X-1-2 cut than if it is an X-2-1 cut.
These plots were built using over 2 million simulated tournaments, with the resulting data mapped to a set of well-fitting logistic curves.